which stretches from the Himalayas to the Indian Ocean. India is the dominant state here, with Pakistan in the west, Bangladesh in the east, Nepal and Bhutan in the Himalaya mountains and Sri Lanka in the south.
India is the second-largest country in the world by population. Due to higher fertility rates, it will surpass China before long.
The whole subcontinent was dominated by the British Empire until 1947. At India’s independence, Britain and New Delhi engineered a separation of the mostly Muslim Pakistan in the east and the west (today’s Bangladesh was then part of Pakistan) from the predominantly Hindu India. Under British supervision, a huge resettlement of millions of people between India and Pakistan was enforced. This, together with the arbitrary partition of Kashmir, is at the root of the conflict between India and Pakistan. More than 100 million Muslims still live in India.
India is also very concerned about China’s assertiveness. There are border disputes between the two countries in the Himalayas. India is strengthening its military and naval capabilities while Pakistan is aligning more closely with China. Islamabad considers the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) a strategic endeavor. The CPEC’s railways and highways link the western Chinese province of Xinjiang to the Pakistani port of Gwadar on the Indian Ocean. This corridor boosts China’s political and economic influence over Pakistan.
India struggles with a deficient public education system, excessive bureaucracy and poverty. The country, however, displays a certain political stability and has no food security issues. Pakistan’s problems are similar.
Before coronavirus hit, New Delhi had an ambitious budget plan for the 2020-2021 fiscal year. Today, India’s government has a third of the economy under lockdown and strives to preserve the country’s development momentum. Some powerful factors are working in India’s favor, but others could drag it down.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to make an imprint on the economy, ideology and welfare. In all three policy areas, he is facing increasing resistance. Moreover, his long-stated goal of reversing decades of increased central authority seems to have been discarded. Add to this the rising prominence of Hindu nationalists within his administration, and 2020 looks set to be his most challenging year.
The burgeoning relationship with the United States is a crucial part of India’s foreign policy. With the election of Donald Trump as president, New Delhi was unsure what to expect. So far, it has leveraged its strategic importance and the leaders’ friendship to its benefit. And while trade remains a sticking point, India has made resolving the issue a priority. The question now is what changes the 2020 election could bring.
The rise of China and the changes in U.S. policy brought by President Donald Trump have presented huge challenges for both Europe and India. Their interests align on some major issues, including international trade and combatting climate change. In the face of Brexit, India has also sought to bolster ties with other EU countries. While Indo-European cooperation is certain to increase, the question is by how much, and how fast.