Politics

and geopolitics

We live in an increasingly interdependent and volatile world, where old certainties have been replaced a more complex set of inter-relationships between nation states.
For forty years after the Second World War, international politics was largely dominated by a two dominant ‘blocs’, one based pluralistic democratic structures and liberal market economies; and the other largely based on one party systems and centrally planned economies.
The fall of the Berlin Wall resulted in a short period of north American hegemony, where interests and values closely associated with the United States predominated. However, the rise in global influence of China, India and other emerging economies, with their own interpretations of political and social values and their own spheres of influence, challenges the status quo.

Alongside this, the growing nationalism and strengthening cultural identities provide fresh challenges to the march towards distant global economic structures and the power of multi-national corporations. Successful organisations are those that can anticipate and respond to these complexities and that are able to adapt effectively to very different local environments.

Consultants

Politics

Our intelligence consultants specialising in politics

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Our Expert

Charles Millon

Charles Millon is a French politician who served as France’s Minister of Defence from 1995 to 1997 in Alain Juppe’s government and French Ambassador to the United Nations from 2003 to 2007.

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Our Expert

Eka Tkeshelashvili

EKA TKESHELASHVILI is the President of the Georgian Institute for Strategic Studies. As an independent consultant, she helps companies operating in Georgia, or willing to invest in the region, in political risk assessment and legal analysis as well as in advancing their strategic communications.

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Dr

Joseph Tulchin

Dr Joseph S. Tulchin is a Latin American scholar with published research on hemispheric security and international affairs, citizen security and police reform, reducing inequality and the governance of cities.

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Jaime Pinto

HISTORIAN and political writer Professor Jaime Nogueira Pinto has published several books on Portuguese contemporary history, political science and military and African affairs.

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Our Expert

Bernard Siman

Member of the Board of Geopolitical Information Service AG. Independent investment and banking professional with strong specialisms strategic risk analysis and advice.

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Professor Dr

Udo Steinbach

Professor Dr Udo Steinbach is a Middle East specialist who teaches at the Centre of Near and Middle East Studies at Philipps University in Marburg, Germany.

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Professor

Stefan Hedlund

STEFAN Hedlund is Professor and Research Director at the Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies, at Uppsala University, Sweden. He trained as an economist and has specialised in Russian affairs since the final days of Leonid Brezhnev in the early 1980s.

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Economics

macroeconomics trends

Innovation, new technology, more and better human capital, trade liberalisation and stronger international rules governing finance and commerce have all contributed to impressive world growth over the past fifty years. Indeed, the world economy has grown in 51 out of the last 52 years.
However, the 2008/09 world recession provided a shock to the global economy and exposed the risks of an under-regulated banking system and which led to huge sovereign debts. Governments responded quickly by increasing the money supply, slashing interest rates and implementing sharp deficit reduction programmes, but for the Eurozone, in particular, the spectre of a Japan-style “lost decade” remains.

Alongside this China and India’s economic rise has been, more or less inexorable, strengthening their hands at the international table and enabling them to develop new economic alliances and pursue new investment opportunities.

Understanding the role of economics in influencing geopolitical behaviour is crucial, particularly as we enter a new world where emerging economies are growing at a pace that the more established ones struggle to match.

Consultants

Economics

Our intelligence consultants specialising in international economic relations

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Our Experts

Timothy Beardson

Timothy Beardson, one of Hong Kong’s most successful entrepreneurs. He founded and ran Crosby Financial Holdings, the largest independent investment bank in the Far East...

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Professor

Enrico Colombatto

ENRICO Colombatto is a professor of economics at the University of Turin, Italy. Professor Colombatto is also Director of the International Centre for Economic Research (ICER) in Turin and Prague and Director of Research, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Fiscales (IREF) in Paris.

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Professor Dr

Christoph Schaltegger

Professor Dr Christoph Schaltegger is an economist, author and academic who specialises in the economics of Europe. Dr Schaltegger, 39, is Director at the Swiss Institute of Public Finance and Fiscal Law IFF at the University of St. Gallen...

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Professor Dr

Michael Wohlgemuth

Professor Dr Michael Wohlgemuth is an economist and has been Director of Open Europe Berlin since August 2012. He has an MA in economics from Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, a PhD from Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, and a second PhD from the Private University of Witten/Herdecke.

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Professor

Stefan Hedlund

STEFAN Hedlund is Professor and Research Director at the Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies, at Uppsala University, Sweden. He trained as an economist and has specialised in Russian affairs since the final days of Leonid Brezhnev in the early 1980s.

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Energy

and energy security

Energy includes fossil oil and gas, nuclear energy, renewables, coal and and shale oil and gas. Its production and the security of its supply are crucial to geopolitical stability and economic progress.

Energy is equally important to developed and emerging countries; it is often used to gain political leverage and as a rationale for military activity. Many energy rich countries have unstable and/or authoritarian regimes, whose unpredictable political decision-making can make it difficult for energy consumers to plan effectively. Energy companies face a constant struggle for independence from foreign energy suppliers and have persistent challenges working in countries with less than transparent governance arrangements.

Oil and gas revenues can help reduce poverty and calm unrest in exporting countries. However, price volatility leaves those that are over-reliant on energy vulnerable to sharp changes in fortune. Diversification is the hallmark of energy security for both suppliers and consumers. However, its complexity goes beyond its supply, to include the management and ownership of its infrastructure, from its pipelines to its grid systems.

Consultants

energy

Our intelligence consultants specialising in energy economics and energy and resource security

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Dr

Carole Nakhle

Dr Carole Nakhle is the founder and Director of Crystol Energy. An Energy Economist by training, she is Associate Lecturer in Energy Economics at the University of Surrey (UK) ...

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Dr

Frank Umbach

Dr Frank Umbach is a Research Director of the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) at King‘s College, London; (Non-Resident) Senior Fellow at the U.S. Atlantic Council, Washington D.C.;

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International Security

and Defence

Some 25 years since the end of the Cold War, the world is entering a new stage. Globalisation and interventions in sovereign states have turned internal tensions into full-blown regional crises. Alliances have become frayed and relations between the world’s leading powers are now less certain. Individual countries are again pursuing their own interests, but new threats, including hostile non-state actors like ISIS, undermine these.

Military power has become more destructive but less useable, and international security & defence now are now framed by the wider contexts of economy, finance, energy, climate, technology, cultural tension, unfrozen conflicts and the blurred relations of international and internal security.

The future is uncertain in all regions. Governments, businesses, NGOs, international bodies and strategic communities need new solutions to fresh and intractable challenges. This requires expert advice on new concepts, strategies, regional assessments, the roles of power and coalition building.

Consultants

Security and Defence

Our intelligence consultants specialising in international security and defence

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Professor

Uwe Nerlich

Dr. Nerlich was a senior vice-president of IABG, and a member of the SWP directorate (now the German Institute for International and Security Affairs) which advises the Bundestag and the federal government on foreign and security issues.

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