South Asia

South Asia refers to the Indian subcontinent,

which stretches from the Himalayas to the Indian Ocean. India is the dominant state here, with Pakistan in the west, Bangladesh in the east, Nepal and Bhutan in the Himalaya mountains and Sri Lanka in the south.

India is the second-largest country in the world by population. Due to higher fertility rates, it will surpass China before long.

The whole subcontinent was dominated by the British Empire until 1947. At India’s independence, Britain and New Delhi engineered a separation of the mostly Muslim Pakistan in the east and the west (today’s Bangladesh was then part of Pakistan) from the predominantly Hindu India. Under British supervision, a huge resettlement of millions of people between India and Pakistan was enforced. This, together with the arbitrary partition of Kashmir, is at the root of the conflict between India and Pakistan. More than 100 million Muslims still live in India.

India is also very concerned about China’s assertiveness. There are border disputes between the two countries in the Himalayas. India is strengthening its military and naval capabilities while Pakistan is aligning more closely with China. Islamabad considers the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) a strategic endeavor. The CPEC’s railways and highways link the western Chinese province of Xinjiang to the Pakistani port of Gwadar on the Indian Ocean. This corridor boosts China’s political and economic influence over Pakistan.

India struggles with a deficient public education system, excessive bureaucracy and poverty. The country, however, displays a certain political stability and has no food security issues. Pakistan’s problems are similar.

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  • Scenarios

India readies to face Trump’s trade ire

As the U.S.-China trade dispute drags on, Washington is gearing up to turn the screws on another trade partner: India. Though the countries are allies, U.S. officials chafe at India’s protectionist policies. Sorting out this imbroglio will be among the Indian government’s top priorities – an escalatory tariff war could cripple the broader relationship.

Pramit Pal Chaudhuri
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The Kashmir crisis exerts pressure on both the U.S. and China

The conflict over Kashmir has led to three wars and countless skirmishes between India and Pakistan. As tensions are building up again in the region, outside powers cooperate to prevent the worst. However, Washington’s and Beijing’s influence over the decision-making process of the two nuclear weapons-armed states may be gradually waning.

Jeff M. Smith
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India decides on force to break a pointless cycle

The latest round of fighting on the India-Pakistan border reveals a changed mood in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to order an air strike deep inside Pakistan in reprisal for a terrorist attack is evidence of a more muscular policy taking shape. If Mr. Modi is reelected in a few months, it can be assumed that India will be brandishing a bigger stick at its Western neighbor.

Pramit Pal Chaudhuri
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2019 Global Outlook: India turns inward

Ahead of parliamentary elections this spring, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reinvented himself. Putting aside earlier economic reforms, his talk is mostly about social welfare. While the Indian leader focuses on wooing small-town voters, his government has put most foreign policy initiatives on hold. Whether Mr. Modi’s ruling BJP wins or loses, India may be due for a period of weaker government.

Pramit Pal Chaudhuri