South and Central America

South and Central America achieved independence

from Spain and Portugal in the 19th century, during and after the Napoleonic wars. A large number of new countries emerged, their creation engendered by local interests and “oligarchs” of the day. All European powers had claims on the islands of the Caribbean. Some of them remain domains of European countries or the United States.

Like North America and Africa, the region is richly endowed in natural resources, water and agricultural land.

Inefficient governance systems and a lack of fiscal discipline are problems haunting most countries in the region. These weaknesses lead to political instability, abrupt regime changes and corruption.

Aside from natural resources, the region’s chief assets include its climatic variety and easy access to the oceans. The area has avoided participation in major wars due to its geographic distance from the world’s hot spots.

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  • Report
  • Scenarios

Caribbean economies face turbulent seas

The diverse Caribbean region offers plenty of economic opportunity and room for growth, especially in tourism and other services, as well as the energy sector. The problem is that these small, open economies are all very vulnerable to external shocks. One of these is severe weather, as hurricane Dorian made all too clear. A global recession or U.S. slowdown would hit the region hard, too.

Dr. David E. Lewis
  • Report
  • Scenarios

Prospects for Latin American economies in 2019

Latin America’s diverse economies are facing a series of common problems in 2019. After a years-long commodities boom, countries that failed to prepare for the current downturn in prices now deal with a loss of revenues and foreign investment. Corruption and quality of life issues have presented other challenges, and the benefits of a recent trade deal with the EU are neither immediate nor assured. Economic prospects across the region range from cautiously hopeful to pessimistic.

Dr. Joseph S. Tulchin
  • Report
  • Analysis

Opinion: Daniel Ortega’s long goodbye

Nicaragua is a cautionary tale for those who see history trending toward democratic governance. President Daniel Ortega has subverted the country’s institutions to create a personalist, authoritarian regime. Now, after the cutoff of oil-based aid from Venezuela, he is relying on guile and bloodshed to stay in power.

Dr. Joseph S. Tulchin
  • Report
  • Analysis

Brazil: Six months of Bolsonaro

Just over six months since Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro entered office, he has already taken the first steps toward opening up the country’s economy, fighting corruption and reducing violent crime. Still, he faces a fractured, obstinate legislature and a staunchly opposed political left. Ultimately, the fate of his administration may be linked to the outcome of the worldwide “culture war” between globalists and nationalists.

Professor Jaime Nogueira Pinto